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LOUISVILLE /JEFFERSON COUNTY

DEMOCRATIC PARTY NEWSLETTER

Week of February 27, 2009

 

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Updated on a regular basis

Bulletin Board:

 

The Louisville/Jefferson County Democratic Executive Committee meets the 4th Wednesday of every month at 5:00 pm at Democratic Headquarters,           
640 Barret Avenue .

 


  •  

    Bunning: ‘I would have a suit’ if Republicans recruit an opponent

     

    Sen. Jim Bunning is vowing to fight back as his feud with Republican leadership over his 2010 re-election bid spills into the national political scene.

     

    If Republican campaign organizations tried to recruit another candidate to run in Bunning’s stead, “I would have a suit against the (National Republican Senatorial Committee) if they did that,” Bunning told reporters on Tuesday. “In their bylaws, support of the incumbents is the only reason they exist.”

     

    The 77-year-old senator says he’s repeatedly told Republican leadership that he plans on running in 2010 for a third term.

    This week, speculation about Bunning’s seat has focused on state Senate President David Williams, R-Burkesville, who on Monday wouldn’t rule out running for U.S. Senate. But Williams told reporters that he would be “less than candid” if he did not say “a lot of rank-and-file people” have called him about the race.

     

    NRSC Chairman John Cornyn of Texas told The Washington Post on Monday that Williams’ meeting with organization officials last week was a “courtesy visit” and that the party “would back Bunning in a contested primary.”

     

    “David Williams usually has the ability to make up his own mind,” Bunning said, adding the state lawmaker “owes me $30,000 and he said he’ll repay me. I was short in my FEC money and he asked me if I would help save two state senate seats… I told him if I did it I would have to have it replaced at the first of the year. So far he has not.”

     

    A Federal Election Commission report for Bunning’s campaign committee, Citizens for Bunning, shows a $25,000 contribution to the Republican Party of Kentucky on Oct. 20, 2008. Bunning said his political action committee donated another $5,000.

     

    Williams declined to comment on Bunning’s statement, said Lourdes Baez-Schrader, Williams’ spokeswoman.

     

    The tension over financial and political support has simmered over the past few weeks as Bunning has faced mounting pressure from Republican leaders to reconsider his re-election bid. Bunning has complained that comments by fellow Kentuckian Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Cornyn questioning the junior senator’s re-election plans undermine his bid.

     

    “I don’t believe anything Cornyn says… I’ve had miscommunications with John Cornyn from first week of this session,” Bunning said. “The NRSC never helped me last time and they’re probably not going to help me this time.

     

    Bunning also drew attention this week for comments he made over the weekend about U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s health. Bunning apologized for those comments on Monday.

     

    In the 2004 election cycle, Bunning eked out a narrow 1.4 percentage point victory against Democratic challenger Daniel Mongiardo, then a state senator from Eastern Kentucky and now the state’s lieutenant governor. During the 2004 campaign, Bunning said Mongiardo, an Italian-American, looked “like one of Saddam Hussein’s sons.”

     

    Bunning later apologized for the statement, and the two may face off again in 2010. Along with Mongiardo, state Attorney General Jack Conway and state Auditor Crit Luallen have been mentioned as potential candidates on the Democratic side. U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler, D-Versailles, has not ruled out a run.

     

    A poll taken nearly a month ago by Research 2000 for the Daily Kos blog showed Bunning would hold a slim advantage against all the potential Democratic challengers.

     


     

    OFF TO THE RACES

    A Nod To The Right Sways The Center, By Charlie Cook

     

    Monday's report by the Gallup Organization regarding how the public perceives President Obama's performance after one month in office says much about the state of American politics.

     

    Obama started out with 68 percent job approval, one of the highest initial approval ratings for a new president since Gallup started taking the measurement under Dwight Eisenhower in 1953. Since then, Obama's approval rating has dropped to 63 percent, with 24 percent disapproving and 13 percent having no opinion. The poll was taken Feb. 19-21, among 1,614 adults, with a 3-point error margin.

     

    According to Gallup, this is a "typical" rating for a president at this point, better than Ronald Reagan's 55 percent but not as high as Jimmy Carter's 71 percent. Reagan's low approval rating and Carter's high approval rating at this stage make one wonder about the importance of what a high-rated start really means. Obama's 63 percent is exactly where George H.W. Bush was at this stage in 1989. It's 4 points better than Bill Clinton's rating was in 1993, and just 1 point better than George W. Bush's in 2001.

     

    But it's what is underneath the 5-point slippage from his initial rating to the current 63 percent that is quite telling. Obama's drop has been entirely among Republicans. He has actually held steady or even moved up slightly among Democrats and independents.

     

    Looking at Gallup's weekly aggregated tracking poll results of approximately 3,000 adults, Obama's job approval rating was 88 percent among Democrats in both the weeks of Jan. 25 and Feb. 1. For the weeks of Feb. 8 and Feb. 15, Obama was at 89 percent. Among independents, in both the first and second weeks, his approval ratings were 62 percent, and 63 percent for the third and fourth weeks in office.

     

    But among those who consider themselves Republicans, Obama started with a 41 percent rating during the first week and was at 38 percent in the second week. By the third week, he was at 34 percent, and last week rested at 30 percent.

     

    This is a pattern seen in other polling, as well. For example, in the latest Fox News/Opinion Dynamics survey, taken Feb. 17-18 among 900 registered voters (3-point error margin), Obama's approval rating dropped 5 points since the Jan. 27-28 survey, to 60 percent. Among just Democrats, Obama moved up 5 points from 85 to 90 percent, and there was a statistically insignificant 2-point difference among independents, from 64 percent to 62 percent. Only 29 percent of Republicans said they approved of his performance thus far. That is an 8-point drop from 37 percent in the earlier poll.

     

    Many liberals and Democratic activists and analysts point to Obama's efforts to reach out to GOP lawmakers and say it is an exercise in futility. They insist that these Republican voters, like their GOP representatives, will fall by the wayside no matter what and there is no point in chasing after them.

     

    While Obama would certainly hope to get some Republican support on some measures in the House and obviously needs some of them in the Senate, his gestures of bipartisanship are intended to curry favor not with Republican voters, but with independent voters. While Obama needs some support from Republicans in the Senate, given the chamber's rules and dynamics, these Republicans will eventually fall away. It is the independent voters who view attempts to reach across party lines as essential to changing the culture of Washington.

     

    Approval ratings of 62 percent among independents in both the Gallup and Fox polls are validation of the Obama approach. Having stratospherically high approval ratings among Democrats alone might make him the darling of the Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner circuit, but that is no way to build a governing majority. Democrats are still sitting in more seats that Bush and/or John McCain carried in 2004 and 2008 than Republicans are sitting in districts that John Kerry and/or Obama won in those elections.

     

    And while Congress' job approval rating is up, to 31 percent in the Gallup Poll and to 39 percent in the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll, it is still a far cry from Obama's numbers. The tone is surely that Congress is not so much an institution that is wrapping itself around the idea of bipartisanship.

     

    Obama is tuned in to something that seems to be escaping both parties' congressional leaders. The name of the game is 50-plus-1, and neither party has 50 percent of the voters on board, with 36 percent calling themselves Democrats, 36 percent independents and 28 percent Republicans. Obama is reading the polls and sees that the key is independents, be it in an election or a poll's approval rating or public support for a legislative measure.

     

    The key to independents is not only being seen as reaching out beyond one's party, but actually doing it. Obama's chances of success are contingent upon getting some element of his party on Capitol Hill to understand that as well. Bipartisanship isn't just a slogan or talking point; it's a strategy, a strategy that works. Now he just has to sell his own party on it.

     

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    Charlie Cook's "Off To The Races" is published each Tuesday by National Journal Group Inc. For more information about National Journal Group's publications, go to http://www.nationaljournal.com/about/

     

  • Conservatives Search For Direction

     

    Nearly 9,000 conservative activists from across the country are expected to convene at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington, D.C. today, an event that has been called "a Mecca of sorts for conservatives." At last year's gathering, both President Bush and Vice President Cheney addressed the right-wing base, "the first time in 35 years" that both the president and vice president had addressed the conference in person in the same year. Now, with the Bush administration out of office and Republicans holding a weakened minority in Congress, the conference will feature a who's who of right-wing personalities vying to be the next leader of the conservative movement. Despite President Obama's popularity and the increasingly center-left nature of America, the conference's organizers believe that "if conservatives adhere to their fundamental principles and do not compromise them for political expediency, they will soon win again." "On basic core beliefs, we remain a marginally right of center country," claimed American Conservative Union chairman David Keene, the chief CPAC organizer, in a speech at the National Press Club this week. Reflecting the hardline fervor of the event's organizers, the "star attraction" at CPAC this year is hate radio host Rush Limbaugh, who will be making his first appearance at the annual gathering. Limbaugh, the "unofficial leader" of the Republican Party, will deliver the conference's final speech before receiving the "Defender of the Constitution Award."

     

    OBSTRUCTIONIST AGENDA: Beyond efforts to re-energize the conservative movement, the assembled politicians and activists at CPAC will be plotting on how to stop Obama's agenda. On Friday, three right-wing members of Congress -- Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-KS), Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT), and Rep. Scott Garrett (R-NJ) -- will complain about Obama's efforts to restart the America's financial system on a panel called "Bailing Out Big Business: Are We All Socialists Now?" Later that day, former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore is scheduled to talk about whether Obama's tax policy will "kill entrepreneurship" (if the 1990s are any indication, it won't). Yet another panel, called "Health Care: The Train Wreck Ahead," will. On Saturday, before Limbaugh continues his call for Obama to "fail," there will be three panels featuring climate change skeptics and deniers who are likely to attack Obama's push for a cap-and-trade program. Opposition to Obama, rather than the cooperation desired by the American people, will undoubtedly be a consistent theme of the conference. For example, in his speech at the National Press Club on Tuesday, Keene praised the Republican opposition to Obama's economic recovery package, saying that it meant "the Republican Party finally is showing signs of doing a better job of formulating its message."
     

     

     

    Buy American Is About Building Jobs, Not Protectionism by Tula Connell

    The attack by corporations and their media mouthpieces on the Buy American provision in the economic recovery package illustrates just how far removed Big Business is from the needs of U.S. workers—and, ultimately, from what will benefit the nation.

    Last night on the PBS “NewsHour with Jim Lehrer,” AFL-CIO international economist Thea Lee honed in on the false arguments pushed by corporate interests who mutter darkly about how Buy American provisions will lead to “trade wars.” The Buy American provision mandates that only U.S.-made goods be used in projects funded by the bill—and requires that these steps are taken in a manner consistent with U.S. international trade obligations. So screams of “protectionism” are a red-herring.

    Says Lee:  

    I think we have to make a distinction between protectionism in a sense of raising tariff barriers…and stopping trade and government procurement decisions, where governments choose to spend their own tax dollars in a way which is targeted towards creation of good jobs at home. And it’s actually a rational step for governments to take in a time where we don’t have the coordination of fiscal stimulus.

    U.S. taxpayers are going into debt to pay for the nation’s economic recovery—shouldn’t those dollars create jobs for Americans? As Lee notes, the U.S. taxpayer wants to

    stimulate the U.S. economy, not the global economy…to create good jobs at home in their own communities. They want their tax dollars spent that way. And other countries may not step up to the plate and do the appropriate level of fiscal stimulus, if they think they can free ride off of what the United States has done.

    Take the example of Canada. As the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) points out, the United States and Canada are both parties to the World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on Government Procurement (GPA), which was signed by 37 other governments, including the European community, Hong Kong, Japan and Korea, but not mainland China, Brazil or Russia. In addition, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) also contains further, bilateral commitments on government procurement requirements. 

    The GPA and NAFTA specify which government agencies are subject to the agreement, the types of goods and services that are covered, and monetary thresholds that determine when the agreements come into force.  So the governments of both countries have already conducted very detailed negotiations that have specified exactly which purchases are covered by Buy American provisions and which are exempt.

    Trade agreements are created for a reason. And as Lee says: 

    as long as we are observing our international obligations, there’s no reason for any other country to complain.

    So, U.S. corporations have no reason to oppose U.S. job creation through the Buy American provision. Except for greed.

     


     

    YOUR COMMENTS

     

    Have your comments printed here.  Send them to LJCDP@louisvilledem.com

     


     

    DAILY GRILL

     

    "[Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA)] has called on President Obama to put in place a system that ensures all White House emails be preserved even if official business was done through private e-mail accounts." -- CNN, 2/19/09

    VERSUS

    "Are we simply going on a fishing expedition at $40,000 to $50,000 a month?" -- Issa, 2/26/08, objecting to an investigation of the Bush administration's abuse of private e-mail accounts

     

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    "Everyone should be abstinent, but it's not realistic at all." -- Bristol Palin, 2/16/09

    VERSUS

    "That means she's saying that abstinence actually is realistic." -- The Weekly Standard's Fred Barnes, 2/21/09

     

     


     

    Quotes of the Day

     

    In the Wall Street Journal, Karl Rove writes, "The Bush tax cuts were not targeted to 'the wealthiest few.'" The facts beg to differ.

     


     

    TOP     

    Recent Senate Votes 

     

    None this week

     


     

    Recent House Votes 

     

    None this week

     


     

    TOP

    HUMOR    

     

    "President Obama gave his first State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress tonight. Obama focused on the three most critical things he wants Americans to understand: first, that the economy is in a lot of trouble; second, that the road to recovery won't be easy; and third, that it's all President Bush's fault." --Jimmy Kimmel

    "The Oscars are kind of a special time in Hollywood. It's a time when celebrities take a break from worshipping Barack Obama and take some time to worship themselves." –Jay Leno

    "The whole cast of 'Slumdog Millionaire' came out to see the Oscars. 'Slumdog' won best picture, which everyone seemed to know was going to happen. It was the big favorite going in. They're saying the only way it could have possibly lost is if it had picked Sarah Palin as a running mate." --Jimmy Kimmel

    "Well, Obama's had quite an opening. Been a month in office -- he signed the stimulus bill, he closed Guantanamo Bay, ordered the planning of our withdrawing from Iraq -- it's like he's spraying the country with a giant can of 'Bush Be-Gone.'" --Bill Maher

    "But what a task this guy has. He's got, on the one hand, to tell the people the truth. And on the other hand, try to lift our morale. Bill Clinton said today, you know, come on, lift morale, get out there and sell the hope thing. And both sides of the aisle are saying this. We have finally found something Democrats and Republicans agree that the president needs to do: lie." --Bill Maher

    "George W. Bush is doing pretty well for a retiree. Our former president will hit the lecture circuit next month for a reported $150,000 per speech. It’s $150,000 for the speech and an extra 25 grand if you want to throw shoes at him. $150,000 seems like a lot to pay to hear someone who can't speak give a speech." --Jimmy Kimmel

    "Some of our nation's largest banks have been described this week as 'dead men walking.' The New York Times says they are insolvent, and here's the thing. Nobody will say the names of the banks, because you say the names, their stock will tank even worse. But here's a hint: one of them rhymes with 's**tty bank,' and the other rhymes with 'skank of America.'" --Bill Maher
     


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    HEALTH CARE -- KENNEDY-LED 'WORKHORSE GROUP' NEARS CONSENSUS ON INDIVIDUAL MANDATES: Led by Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA), a diverse group of senators, lobbyists for health insurance companies, pharmaceutical companies, small businesses, and doctors have been in quiet negotiations on a prospective universal health care plan since last fall. Although "not all industry groups are in complete agreement," they are "embracing the idea that comprehensive health care legislation should include a requirement that every American carry insurance." Opponents to such a "mandate" worry that the "government would end up forcing people" to buy coverage that they didn't want or need. In reality, however, mandates would serve to lower health care costs for everyone.  The New Republic's Jonathan Cohn explained that "if government prohibits insurers from excluding people with pre-existing conditions -- a step that's essential to making insurance available to all -- people could then game the system by waiting to buy insurance until after they became sick." Adding a mandate protects against such behavior while ensuring that individuals have access to preventative care -- a key component to reducing health care costs. The "workhorse group" is reportedly considering a legal penalty to enforce the mandate on the condition that all available health insurance packages are "meaningful and affordable."
     

    POSTURING IN CONGRESS: Conservatives in Congress voted en masse against the economic recovery package earlier this month. In doing so, they offered blistering -- and misleading -- critiques of the package, calling it "silly pork," a "spending spree," and at one point referring to the process as "TOTALLY ILLEGAL." House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) worked furiously to pressure moderate House Republicans to vote against the package and then released an over-the-top YouTube video touting his caucus's unanimous opposition. But increasing numbers of congressional conservatives are revealing their votes against the recovery package for what they were: political theater. A review of news reports by ThinkProgress found that at least 22 lawmakers who voted against the recovery package have begun touting its benefits to their constituents. Rep. John Mica (R-FL), for instance, "gushed" after the passage of the bill he voted against, releasing a statement that applauded Obama's "recognition that high-speed rail should be part of America's future." Similarly, Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO) went on a tour of his home state to tout the very stimulus plan he railed against. In a press release, Bond boasted about an amendment he included in the bill to provide more funding for affordable housing. Just days before, however, Bond declared, "Hold onto your wallets folks because with the passage of this trillion-dollar baby the Democrats will be poised to spend as much as $3 trillion in your tax dollars."

     

    ECONOMY -- GEORGE P. BUSH RIPS CHARLIE CRIST AS 'D LIGHT' FOR SUPPORTING STIMULUS: Delivering a speech before the Young Republican National Federation on Saturday, George P. Bush -- the son of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush -- ripped current Florida governor Charlie Crist (R) for being a "D light" (Democrat light). "There's some in our party that want to assume that government is the answer to all of our problems," George P. said. "I'm not going to name any names," he added, but told the crowd, "You know who I'm talking about." George P. later clarified that he was referring to Crist, saying that "he doesn't think Crist is a fiscal conservative and that he may have hurt himself with some Republicans for his appearance with Obama and his support of the stimulus plan." George P. Bush's attacks on Crist are ironic given his uncle's track record. President Bush presided over the greatest expansion of government spending since World War II. "As a result of all this spending, the country has gone from a $128 billion budget surplus when Mr. Bush took office" to a deficit exploding over $1 trillion when he left office. George P., who currently lives in Texas and works as a partner in a real estate investment firm, said he's not ruling out a future run for elected office. "I want to obtain success in my own right. I want people to look at a record of accomplishment that I've put together in my own right and not based on family name," Bush said. "I haven't achieved my personal goals. Definitely down the road I'd love to reassess but as of right now it's not for me."
     

    SOCIAL SECURITY-- SEN. GRAHAM SAYS SOCIAL SECURITY PRIVATE ACCOUNTS ARE 'OFF THE TABLE': In an interview with the New York Times, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said that President Bush's ideas for private Social Security accounts was no longer being considered. "The carve-out account is off the table," he said. The Times notes that the recent collapse of the stock market has "discredited" the idea, for which Graham long fought. Indeed, an analysis by the Center for American Progress Action Fund last year found that a retiree would have lost roughly $26,000 if he or she had retired on Oct. 1, 2008, after 35 years of contributing to private accounts like those formerly endorsed by Graham. With Graham signaling an opening, "the advocates for a compromise see an opportunity" for real reform that may include tax raises and benefit cuts. However, it's unclear whether Graham is speaking for his party. The 2008 GOP platform endorsed the creation of "personal investment accounts." Regardless, President Obama has made clear his determination to act on reform. "We have to signal seriousness in this by making sure some of the hard decisions are made under my watch, not someone else's," Obama said last month.

     

    JUSTICE -- ROVE IGNORES HOUSE JUDICIARY COMMITTEE SUBPOENA: Last month, House Judiciary Committee Chairman John Conyers (D-MI) issued a second subpoena in his efforts to compel former White House adviser Karl Rove to testify about "allegations that the Bush administration improperly politicized the Justice Department." Rove was supposed to appear before the committee yesterday, but he was a no show. Contacted by The Progress Report, the House Judiciary Committee confirmed the report of Rove's absence. Raw Story noted that instead of appearing before Congress, Rove attended a scheduled fundraiser in suburban Illinois. Rove's refusal to appear before Congress does not come as a surprise. As TPMmuckraker noted, "after getting the deadline pushed back, Rove had already publicly indicated he didn't plan on being there, citing President Bush's claim of executive privilege."  Days before leaving office, White House Counsel Fred Fielding sent letters to top-level aides, including Rove, instructing them to continue to ignore congressional demands for information about anything they did while at the White House." The Obama White House is urging Rove and the House Judiciary Committee to cut a deal, but Rove and his lawyer, Robert Luskin, have said that it is up to White House to assert executive privilege or not. This means that the next major development will be on March 4, "when the Obama administration is scheduled to file a motion in federal appeals court laying out its position on the issue."

     


     
    Think Fast  

     

    For the budget he will present next week, President Obama "has banned four accounting gimmicks that President George W. Bush used to make deficit projections look smaller." The move away from budget gimmicks, one of which used to be failing to note the cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, will create "a budget that is $2.7 trillion deeper in the red over the next decade than it would otherwise appear."

     

    In an interview with the Associated Press, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) said it’s time to "take a whack" at climate change and that "he plans to push for Senate action on global warming by the end of summer." Reid said "the Senate will take up energy legislation in a couple of weeks ‘and then later this year, hopefully late this summer do the global warming part of it.'"

     

    Obama's director of the Office of Management and Budget, Peter Orszag, had a rough first weekend of work. Finding a large marble fireplace stacked with wood in his office on a chilly January day, Orszag lit a cozy fire. "The only problem: The Secret Service had capped the building's chimneys. Smoke alarms started going off upstairs, and the building was evacuated." Orszag has suffered the mocking of the White House ever since. "Rahm [Emanuel] asked me to send smoke signals to the Hill," Orszag told Politico's Ben Smith.

     

    Supporters of D.C. voting rights "believe that they are on the verge of their biggest victory in at least 30 years." "I think the votes are there. I think it’s going to pass the Senate," said Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT), referring to the bill that would create a full House seat for the District, set to be taken up by the chamber this week

     

    Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has landed a "three-book deal with Crown Publishers, starting with a memoir about her years in the administration of President George W. Bush." The agreement is worth at least $2.5 million, and her first book is planned for 2011.

     

    Former CNN and MSNBC conservative anchor Tucker Carlson is joining the libertarian CATO Institute as a senior fellow. "I've admired the Cato Institute since I first read its publications," he said. Carlson will write a book on the state of the American political system.

     

    Members of Congress are "already shooting down President Obama's plan to cut farm subsidies." Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) said that "it is premature to make any sweeping changes to the makeup of the farm safety net," while Rep. Collin C. Peterson (D-MN), the chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, said, "[W]e just finished the farm bill last year, and I don't think we'll open it up."

     

    "In his second reversal of a Bush administration decision," Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said yesterday that he is "scrapping leases for oil-shale development on federal land in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming.” The leases would have led to “oil-shale exploration on 1.9 million acres in the three states."

     


     

    TOP  

    INTERESTING   

     

    Whose Downturn?

    At what point will the public blame the recession on Obama instead of Bush? by Charlie Cook

    The relentlessly bad economic news in recent days raises an important political question: How long does former President Bush keep ownership of this recession?

     

    At this stage, voters have no doubt that the recession started on his watch. Yet plenty of blame deserves to be laid at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, and that blame extends to administrations of both parties, not to mention government-supported enterprises and mortgage companies.

     

    In political terms, voters have dumped the blame into Bush's lap. But, at some point along the way, if this recession lasts very long, its ownership will transfer to President Obama.

     

    According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of such things, this recession started in December 2007. The average length of the last 10 recessions, dating back to 1945, was 10 months, the bureau says.

    The two longest lasted 16 months each -- from November 1973 to March 1975 and from July 1981 to November 1982. So, the current recession reached the average length in October 2008, and in May of this year, it will reach the 17-month mark, making it the longest downturn since the Great Depression.

     

    It's no surprise that this recession blew past the average point, nor will it be a shocker when it goes past the 16-month marker, as it surely will. Nevertheless, only the most committed pessimists expect this recession to last as long as the Depression, which actually consisted of double-barrel downturns, from August 1929 to March 1933, and then from May 1937 to June 1938.

     

    One way to think about the present recession is to focus on its two components -- the psychological aspect and the fundamental aspect. The "psychology" is basically that when people get sufficiently worried about the economy, consumers stop buying, employers stop hiring, and lenders stop lending. The cumulative effect is that the economy grinds to a halt. General Electric's chairman and CEO, Jeff Immelt, calls this process a "negative feedback cycle."

     

    The "fundamental" aspect of the problem is the more serious one. It involves financial institutions whose books are filled with assets of dubious value -- investments so upside down that even if the psychology turned around, normal appreciation wouldn't bring them right side up.

     

    The economic stimulus package and Obama's exhortations are all designed to address the recession's psychological aspect. But the downturn's housing and toxic-assets component is what makes this economic crisis so challenging.

     

    Should the recession last twice as long as the worst downturns since the Great Depression, or 32 months, it would extend into July 2010, or just over three months before the 2010 midterm elections. And although Bush still has ownership of the recession today, at some point next year, if the economy has not clearly bottomed out and started improving, ownership would transfer to Obama. All of the new president's actions would have had a year and a half to have worked. And if they haven't by then, he would begin to get the blame.

     

    Statistically, so long as most of the remaining financial institutions hold together, one would certainly expect this recession to be coming to a conclusion at least by mid-2010. But, that proviso about financial institutions and their assets is the key. Their troubles are largely what's making this downturn deeper and tougher than normal.

     

    As polling very clearly shows, congressional Republicans have done nothing to help themselves by almost unanimously opposing the massive stimulus package. Indeed, they look increasingly isolated: a narrow party that is looking inward for sustenance. Selecting former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele to be national party chairman is about the only intelligent thing that Republicans have done since Election Day. At this point, a Republican rebound seems more contingent upon a Democratic collapse than anything else. Certainly, Republicans aren't doing anything these days to help bring themselves back.

     


     

    Buy American Mention of the Week, By Roger Simmermaker      

     

     NONE THIS WEEK 

     

    ***************************************************************************

     

    Roger Simmermaker is the author of How Americans Can Buy American: The Power of Consumer Patriotism and writes "Buy American Mention of the Week" articles for WorldNetDaily.com and his website www.howtobuyamerican.com. Roger is a member of the Machinists Union and National Writers Union, has been a frequent guest on Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC, and has been quoted in the USA Today, Wall Street Journal and Business Week among many other publications.

     


     

    GOOD NEWS

     

    "The Environmental Protection Agency is expected to act for the first time to regulate carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that scientists blame for the warming of the planet, according to top Obama administration officials."

     

     


      

    VIDEOS  

     

    NONE THIS WEEK

     

     


     

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    Publication of
    Louisville/Jefferson County Democratic Party
    Tim Longmeyer, Chairman
    Ray Crider, Editor
    640 Barret Ave
    Louisville, Ky  40202
    502-582-1999
     
    Paid for by the
    Louisville/Jefferson Co Democratic Party
    Charlie Horton, Treasurer
    Produced & Printed In-House

     

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